Brief obituary notice of a pre-eminent historian and strategist, and a founding member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Director-General of the IISS.

Category Codes: P6
Keywords: HOWARD

Assessment of effectiveness in the particular case of Russia, and generally in terms of statecraft. "Sanctions are imposing costs on Russia, but are they good Western policy?" (p18).
Former UK ambassador to Belarus (2000-10), now instructor at Mahidol University, Thailand, and associate fellow with the Russia-Eurasia programme at RIIA Chatham House. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.08, A1.09, A4.08
Keywords: SANCTIONS
Geographical Index: RUSSIA

Heads a colloquium of four analyses under the rubric 'Deterring a nuclear North Korea'. Containment and deterrence are preferable to a maximalist policy of elimination or negation. "The United States and its allies have a clear interest in limiting the coercive leverage that Pyongyang derives from its nuclear-weapons capabilities. The two means of doing so are arms control and improving US and allied military capabilities to strike and defend against North Korea's nuclear forces" (p33).
Kim is a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses and adjunct professor at the Yonsei Graduate School of International Studies; Warden is a researcher in the strategy, forces and resources division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria VA. 'Personal views only' disclaimer. Full text. The colloquium is provided with a brief introduction by Adam Mount on pp29-30 (full text).

Category Codes: A6.1
Keywords: COERCION, CONTAINMENT, DETERRENCE
Geographical Index: KOREA N

It is essential that North Korea be confident in its capability for second-strike retaliation, and its current relations with the USA and South Korea are neither frequent nor clear enough to support such confidence.
Mount is senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists and director of its defense posture project; Rapp-Hooper is Schwartzman senior fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Full text.

Category Codes: A6.1
Geographical Index: KOREA N

US policy should (1) aim to deter Kim Jong-un from first nuclear use by threatening obliteration of his regime (2) clearly renounce any intention of seeking regime change or disarmament by force.
Narang is associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and member of its security studies programme; Panda is adjunct senior fellow with the Defense Posture project at the Federation of American Scientists. Full text.

Category Codes: A6.1, B1.1
Keywords: DETERRENCE, ESCALATION
Geographical Index: KOREA N

"The ultimate decision to escalate is in North Korea's hands. But the United States and South Korea must do their best to shape that decision" (p56).
Campbell is an active-duty USMC officer currently studying at the American University; Dodge is a research scholar at the National Institutte for Public Policy. Full text.

Category Codes: A6.1, B1.1
Keywords: DETERRENCE, ESCALATION
Geographical Index: KOREA N

Not only are the USA, Russia and China modernizing their nuclear arsenals and developing doctrine for nuclear warfighting, but they (along with the UK and France) are voicing robust objections to the Nuclear Ban Treaty. "For the planet to avoid the ultimate catastrophe of large-scale nuclear warfare, each statesperson with the power to press the proverbial nuclear button will need to exhibit a degree of prudence and wisdom the world has rarely seen" (p85).
Emeritus professor of politics at Brandeis University. Full text.

Category Codes: A6.1, B1.1
Keywords: NUCLEAR BAN TREATY

Imposed denuclearization is not a realistic prospect, and US policy should be one of focused engagement to consolidate gains and achieve more limited goals, as was the case with nuclear arms control.
Former senior State Department official, now visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.04, A6.1
Geographical Index: KOREA N

"Overall, persistent engagement is a very high-risk approach to developing cyber deterrence that is likely to not only trigger new forms of retaliation but also accelerate the already rapid international proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities. In the worst-case scenario, it may even pose a risk to the internet as we know it. Some of the risks associated with the concept could, however, be partially alleviated by reducing its reliance on mixed signals and an excess of public communication" (p107).
Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Full text.

Category Codes: N1
Keywords: DETERRENCE, INFORMATION WARFARE

It is not necessary that perpetrators be directly identifiable, as indirect identification on the cui bono? principle is sufficient. "Deterrence based on the threat of retaliatory punishment does not inherently require attribution of the attacker's identity, provided relevant interests can be ascertained" (p137).
Senior lecturer at the Security & Strategy Institute, University of Exeter. Full text. The proviso is itself problematic. If the target state has multiple adversaries, each with its own set of interests in seeing it harmed, indirect identification can provide no basis for retaliatory decision -- one must lash out at all of them. The diplomatic costs of such indiscriminate response are not discussed. Likewise, the 'false flag' possibility of a perpetrator successfully disguising an attack so as to implicate a third (and innocent) party is mentioned as a 'caveat' (p137), and dealt with as follows: "If the framed aggressor repudiated the coercive goals that appeared to point in its direction, consciously and visibly eschewing the potential benefits of the apparent coercion, it would credibly signal that it was not to blame" (p140). This reflects a supposition that real interests can be disguised by diplomatic signalling.

Category Codes: N1
Keywords: ATTRIBUTION, COERCION, DETERRENCE, INFORMATION WARFARE

While both Russia and Japan would benefit from closer relations, a narrow focus on the Kurile issue will continue to inhibit such reconciliation. "Nevertheless, national interests may now be sufficiently compelling to incentivise better relations" (p152).
Research assistant at the International Laboratory on World Order Studies and the New Regionalism, and lecturer at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.04, A1.09
Geographical Index: JAPAN, RUSSIA

Analysis of the political and economic prospects of the country following the departure from office on 19 Mar 2019 of President Nazarbayev after three decades in power. These are likely to be determined by the elite networks established during his presidency.
Assistant professor of Russian and International Studies at the University of Leiden. Full text.

Category Codes: A3.09
Geographical Index: KAZAKHSTAN

"This article suggests how core Serbian interests can be accommodated in an independent Kosovo that today already provides extensive group minority rights for Kosovo Serbs" (p170).
History and public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and senior advisor to Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.09, A3.09
Geographical Index: SERBIA, KOSOVO

Review of Jon Gertner 'The ice at the end of the world: an epic journey in Greenland's buried past and our buried future' (Random House, New York, 2019). "Neither Greenland's strategic importance nor its potential oil and mineral wealth are central to Gertner's mostly backwards-looking exploration" (p184).
IISS consulting member and contributing editor to this journal. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.01, P6
Geographical Index: ARCTIC, GREENLAND

Review of Dmitry Adamsky 'Russian nuclear orthodoxy: religion, politics and strategy' (Stanford UP, Palo Alto CA, 2019). He argues persuasively that the ROC, the armed forces and nuclear policy-makers have established a symbiotic relationship since the fall of the Soviet Union" (p191).
Research fellow with the Russia-Eurasia programme at RIIA Chatham House. Full text.

Category Codes: A2.09, A9
Keywords: CHRISTIANITY
Geographical Index: RUSSIA

Assessment of the chaotic state of US foreign policy under the Trump presidency. "With no Kissinger in the White House, 2020 could be a long year" (p230).
Editor of this journal. Full text.

Category Codes: A1.02, A3.02
Keywords: IMPEACHMENT, TRUMP